Senior Analyst Peng Cheng
2025-10-07 14:00:00
Ince the end of August, the natural gas market has strengthened significantly, with an overall increase of over 35% as of the beginning of October. This trend is closely tied to the cyclical characteristics of the natural gas market. As temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere gradually drop and the heating season approaches, demand for natural gas has risen accordingly, providing strong fundamental support for gas prices.
Recently, geopolitical risks in the Middle East have intensified, posing threats to natural gas production and exports in the region. Currently, natural gas production in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has reached 925 billion cubic meters, accounting for nearly a quarter of the global total. Especially after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe has sought to diversify its natural gas imports. The European Union (EU) plans to gradually reduce its reliance on Russian natural gas within the next 6 to 12 months, and the share of Middle Eastern natural gas in Europe’s imports is expected to keep rising—Qatari natural gas, in particular, already accounts for approximately 10.4% of Europe’s imports.
However, the escalation of Israel’s military operations against various countries in the Middle East may pose new threats to natural gas production and exports. On 9 September , Israel launched its first attack on Qatari territory. From Palestine and Iran to Syria and Qatar, Israel appears intent on expanding the conflict. After multiple countries recognized the establishment of a Palestinian state, signs of the war’s expansion have become increasingly apparent. Under mounting pressure, Israel may adopt more aggressive military actions to address the Hamas issue, leading to a significant increase in geopolitical risks.
Currently, Europe has begun preparations for the heating season. According to data from the Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), as of 27September , the EU’s average gas storage filling rate had reached 82.32%, with only seven countries achieving a filling rate exceeding 90%. Natural gas inventories on the European continent stood at 95.5 billion cubic meters, 6.66 billion cubic meters lower than the five-year average and 14.6 billion cubic meters lower year-on-year.
Poland led with a storage filling rate of 100.51%, while France ranked last at 91.25%. Portugal, Belgium, Romania, the Czech Republic, and Italy fell in the middle, with Italy’s gas storage facilities filled to 91.96%. The EU requires all member states to reach a 90% gas storage target between 1 October and 1 December this year, indicating that Europe will continue to increase natural gas imports in the coming period.
Peng Cheng, a market strategist at Zhisheng Research under the special invitation ofPlotio, analyzed that based on existing data, global natural gas consumption is expected to reach 4,221.3 billion cubic meters by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. Among regions, Asia-Pacific, North America, and the Middle East will be the main drivers of consumption growth, with their consumption increments accounting for 35%, 31%, and 26% of the global total, respectively.
It is projected that in 2025, the growth in global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) will outpace the growth in new supply. Supply growth in North America and demand growth in Europe will jointly drive the reshaping of the global natural gas trade pattern. From a medium-to-short-term demand perspective, there is a high possibility that the central level of natural gas prices will continue to rise.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart of natural gas has formed a double bottom breakout, marking a trend reversal, with moving averages arranged in a bullish formation. In the short term, attention can be paid to the support level around $3.25.
Important Statement：
The above content and views are provided by the third-party partner platform, Zhisheng, for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk based on this information.
This article is from Plotio; please cite the source when reprinting.
【In the event of any inconsistency between the English and Chinese versions, the Chinese version will prevail.】
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